Get Ready for Gustav!

If you haven't been keeping up with the weather lately, you may want to tune in over the next few days as meterologists track Tropical Storm Gustav. According to Barbie (see Barbie's blog in my bloglist and check out today's entry) and our folks at the Corps who have been tracking this storm, it has the potential to be pretty serious if certain conditions play out. I am praying that maybe we'll get lucky, but I still remember Katrina all too well and it was pretty rough. Something I don't wish to relive if I don't have to. And, that was before I had two babies to take care of. Regardless of what happens, I'll definitely be stocking up on supplies over the next few days before the crowds hit the stores and both of our vehicles will be full of gas. We plan to be prepared this time. The information below is today's report from one the guys at the Mississippi Valley Division here in town:

10AM CDT Position: 18.8N 74.0W or 125 miles southeast of Guantanamo, Cuba
Movement: West-northwest at 5mph
Max Winds: 60mph with gusts to 75mph

Tropical Storm Gustav has begun to move away from Haiti and is expected to regain hurricane intensity in the next day or two. Conditions appear to be favorable for development through at least the next 72 hours and Gustav is expected to reach Category 3 status prior to entering the Gulf of Mexico. The official NHC intensity forecast levels off after 3 days and calls for a Category 3 hurricane in 5 days. The official NHC forecast track has shifted to the east a little bit during this advisory package, but still calls for Gustav to be in the north/central Gulf of Mexico on Monday morning. It is important not to focus on the exact point in the 5 day forecast because errors of 200+ miles are normally possible that far out in the forecast cycle. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement with the official NHC forecast with outliers bringing Gustav to the northern Gulf Coast anywhere between western LA and the Panhandle of FL. The key will be the strength of the ridge over FL when Gustav reaches the Gulf of Mexico, so NOAA will begin to fly upper level missions over the Gulf of Mexico tomorrow night in order to assimilate the most accurate data into the hurricane models. I will continue to monitor the progress of Gustav and send another update this afternoon.